USA Africa Dialogue Series - DIVIDING THE NATION : COMPARING NIGERIA AND SOUTH SUDAN A DEBATE

                                                      Dividing the Nation

                                             Comparing Nigeria and Sudan   

                                                         A Debate                      

                                                          Compiled by

                                               Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju

                                                             Compcros    

                                      Comparative Cognitive Processes and Systems

                          "Exploring Every Corner of the Cosmos in Search of Knowledge"

                                               from the Facebook account of

                                                    Olusola Osineye

Olusola Osineye

22 December near London · Edited

I have read so many comments from a section of Nigerians about events in South Sudan, but deliberately avoided that topic. Now I have had enough of their bullshit. 

Okay, South Sudan is at the precipice of a Civil War and so therefore it automatically means breaking away from the main Muslim Sudan is ill-conceived? How much dumber can some people be? You have to use one isolated case to arrive at your conclusion? Didn't anybody teach these folks about statistics, chi square, t-tests, correlations and the rest? You just sit down in your ignorant corner and make stupid inferences because of one isolated case. Have you heard about Former USSR? How about Czechoslovakia? Have you heard about Yugoslavia? How about Eritrea and Ethiopia?

So if South Sudan is having trouble, it automatically means any country that breaks away from another bully country will necessarily follow that route? I only blame ASUU and the deplorable standard of education. Stop making stupid inferences. If Nigeria breaks, it doesn't mean it will follow South Sudan. Get a grip! Breaking away should be an option on the table. There's nothing scary in it.

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Godwin Eto Just a couple of days.....very soon!.

22 December at 17:56 via mobile · Like

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Aliu Gajo We were conqured in 1903 by colonialist and joined in to Nija by force in 1914. Our leaders who resisted were arrested and locked up in lokoja...in 1966 they killed our leaders..in 1967 Murtala Mohd advised we should go our separate path to avoid conflict but they threatened him in to silence and assasinated him. Now Southerners want to go their separate path; whatever is in the best of peace should happen

22 December at 18:05 via mobile · Edited · Unlike · 1

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Kola Adesegha The first agenda/question at the CONversation should be "do we want to stay together as a nation?" The answer to that question should form the basis of the remaining points on the agenda.

22 December at 18:20 · Unlike · 3

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Obinna Aligwekwe While I agree that one scenario does not necessarily lead to another, it is very cogent to study the factors at play in South Sudan and see if the components forming our own country share the same characteristics. Sadly, they do. In fact, moreso in Nigeria. There is nothing sacrosanct about Nigerian unity but we must realise that breaking up a country is no walk in the park. Each of the component units making up Nigeria have sub-units that are sometimes involved in bitter acrimony, to the extent of being ready to cut the nose to spite the face. Do you think Urhobo will settle down to Ijaw domination in a Niger-Delta republic? Do you think Itsekiri and Edo wont fight to establish identity distinct from the yoruba in an Oduduwa republic? I only mention these because they are the most obvious. There are hundreds of other flashpoints that can potentially conflagrate whatever new republics may emerge.(TIV/IDOMA, Ikwerre/igbos, Anioma/igbos, Ilorin/Yorubas). The funny thing is none of the members of these separatist components are asking advance question as to how these anomalies would be sorted out in their republics should a break-up occur. Break-up should be the means to an end, not the end in itself, if that end which is progress is not achieved, you will have further conflagration which may even be more bitter. The unfortunate thing is that Nigeria since independence has not been given a chance to breathe, let alone die. I say this because we the people have never talked to ourselves genuinely, its either the millitary or some selected people talking on our behalf and always missing the aspirations of the component peoples. Every country has its own separatists (America, UK inclusive) but once the system works and there is consistent dialogue, the unionists will always swing the populace to their side, because its not easy breaking a country.

22 December at 18:32 · Edited · Unlike · 11

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Olusola Osineye @Obinna, that is the kind of analysis we should be having and not all these knee-jerk meaningless reaction because of events in South Sudan.

22 December at 18:30 · Like · 4

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Olasunkanmi Olapeju For me,this is the post of the month.

22 December at 18:38 via mobile · Like · 1

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Adetoro A Akinseye I have not studied the South Sudan challenge in detail so cannot comment. The truth is balkanising Nigeria will not be a cake walk! There are several ethnic nationalites in the South South, then let's go to the North it will be VERY SCARY make no mistake. One of the major factors that led to the Balkanisation of Yugoslavia was the IMF then the bankruptcy and hopelessness that followed. I believe that with good management of our economy we will not go down this route

22 December at 18:45 · Unlike · 1

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Ebipere Clark Has anyone asked the South Sudanese if they want to merge back?

22 December at 20:06 via mobile · Unlike · 1

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Obinna Aligwekwe @Ebipere Clark......., if John Garang had lived, the previously United Sudan would have been more prosperous than South Sudan currently is. He preferred a highly federated Sudan with most of its components autonomous to actual break-up, and the Northern Oligarchy in Sudan was giving into a considerable number of his demands. Negotiations came to a head when he was Vice-President, but unfortunately he died in a helicopter crash, and Sylva kiir, who had more separatist agenda took over. Kiir belongs to the other major ethnic group in South Sudan. The other current rebel leader belongs to the rival majority. We havent even talked about the oil-rich Abyei which wants its own auotonomy. These people kept talking about break-up for over 30 years yet none of them could ask themselves advance questions on how they would sort themselves out in the event of one. Now, the chickens have come to roost and the Northern part of Sudan (which is now more peaceful) where they left is probably laughing at them. Nigeria's composition is even more heterogenous than South Sudan. The Niger Delta alone has more ethnic groups than South Sudan, yet advocates for break-up have not asked how they would avoid the injustice in Nigeria (the very reason why they are advocating break-up). These things would hit you SMACK IN THE FACE when a Niger-Delta Republic comes on stream, or Oodua Republic, or even Biafra. Let the events in South Sudan be a lesson. As it stands, if the problem in South Sudan keeps getting protracted, the only solution will be to break her up into smaller pieces. Do we know how many pieces? Coming to Nigeria, if we dont sort our problems and a break-up occurs, believe me, it may not be one or two pieces or even three or four. We may end up with so many tiny nations where even that peace may not be guaranteed.

22 December at 20:37 · Edited · Unlike · 3

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Charles Otika Its better for us to stay together. There is more to be gained that way. All we need to do is to have a dialogue amongst the ethnic groups to synchronize our aspirations. What caused all these problems is yaradua"s death and the perceived marginalization of the north in the power equation.

22 December at 20:44 via mobile · Like

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Charles Otika A north: south pendulum swing in the presidency of this country if instituted, will bring so much peace to this country.

22 December at 20:48 via mobile · Like

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Charles Otika The oil in the seas should belong to the whole country while that on the land should belong 50percent to the land owners.

22 December at 20:52 via mobile · Like

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Ken Nwankwo Mr. Aligwekwe, I quite disagree with you on this note. We argued a lot when we were in Imoke and I ve known you to argue fervently with some facts, but here I truly wish to differ significantly with you. The problem in South Sudan's not because it separated with North Sudan. For years North had carried out campaign of ethnic cleansing against the South in a bid to arabinise the South, culturally, socially and religiously(policy of lenbasarum). I'm sure if you were from Darfur you would prefer to be killed by your brothers to face annihilation by people from different cultural affinities. The problem of South Sudan's a reflection of the universal problem of African man. Power for the sake of power. Mr. Macher, the then Vice President was sacked, the reality that he was no longer in power was too difficult for him. Instead of being a statesman for the sake of the young state, he chose to hide under the cloak of ethnic dominance by the other group to stir up ethnic tension. That South Sudan would ve been better off with the North's a little far-fetched, and there's enough room to puncture that. As for Nig, the problem has been undue emphasis on our differences, occasioned and maintained by absolute poor leadership. Although it would be better to operate in a larger space in a better organised and freer condition, this current trend may eventually make the prospect of separation more tantalising, no matter the weighty effects of its aftermat.

Yesterday at 05:25 via mobile · Edited · Unlike · 2

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Obinna Aligwekwe Agreed, the separation was inevitable, especially after the death of Garang. The point am trying to make is break-up is a Meaans to an end and not the end in itself. Why didn't anyone foresee the heterogenicity of South Sudan. I mean, the division between Macher's ethnic group and Kiir's Dinka tribe was all too obvious even when they were part of the larger Sudan. Macher's even formed an alliance with the Northern Muslims at a point to fight the south when they were part of the larger Sudan. And, by the time of John Garang's death, the demands of the South had largely been met and the then autonomous South Sudan even had their President while still one country eith the North. Garang's knew the problems of the South, that's why he wanted an automous south within a larger country. Yes, there is an element of power struggle, but the ethnic division and illiteracy has not helped. My point is in drawing the striking similarities we share with that unfortunate country.

Yesterday at 07:43 · Edited · Unlike · 1

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Charles Otika Those who taught that eastern Nigeria as it then was, was homogeneous were so wrong.

Yesterday at 07:51 via mobile · Unlike · 1

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Obinna Aligwekwe And......it will be very unfortunate should Nigeria break up. While I maintain that there is nothing sacrosanct about our unity, the devils plaguing Nigeria are actually manufactured by the elite much more than the differences of the people. The elite have fashioned out a very unworkable system that feeds on our ethnicity to thrive. Our ethnic fault lines may be real, but they are very amenable. Go and see multi-ethic countries that have broken up, their feuds are ancient, some dating up to the biblical era. For Nigeria, its mostly buoyed up by power mongers. These same people when Nigeria breaks wil move from supporting southern interests to Biafran/Oduduwa/Niger Delta interests until the Ijaws start fighting the ur hobos in Niger Delta, Yorubas start fighting Itskiri and Igbos start fighting Ikwerre. Nobody is looking at this angle. The funny thing is that it is even happening within the larger Nigeria. It will blow fully if a break up occurs, especially if there is no form of dialogue.

Yesterday at 07:56 · Unlike · 2

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Obinna Aligwekwe Charles Otika....., even the phrase "monolithic North" is nothing but a fable. Even within the middle belt that has extricated itself from the North, we have the TiVo/Jukun debacle, in Jos we have the Fulani/Berom. In Nassarawa we have the eggon fighting everyone. These low level conflicts will snow ball into full blown genocide if the centre finally falls apart. Also, there would be bitter border disputes. Who will own Ilorin? Yoruba or Hausas? Who will control Port-Harcourt? Igbos or Ikwerres, or the Niger Delta? We have Christians in Kaduna who will be like fish out of water, and so on and so forth.

Yesterday at 08:08 · Unlike · 1

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Charles Otika obinna that is why we should be together.

Yesterday at 09:06 via mobile · Unlike · 1

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Ken Nwankwo I agree. John Garang understood the social complexities of the Sudanese society as whole, knowing that the complex interplay of the ethnic cosmic forces would significantly modulate the debilitating effect of any one group, provided there was a large space for freedom of self- identity and pursuit within their respective ethnic niches with a wholesome beneficial effect. In Nig, ur argument's plausible but we must be mindful of the mindset of a few who, in the name of quest for power at all cost, are stirring up ethnic strivings that may constitute a veritable catalyst for a disastrous chain reaction.

6 hours ago via mobile · Edited · Unlike · 2

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Ebipere Clark The answer is trivial - the centre has to be weakened such that nobody can dictate to another.
However, people want control - they want to control it all.
Anyone who is against regional autonomy and self-reliance is simply asking for the status quo to remain.

I am tired of arguing, people know what needs to be done but selfishness will drive the country to the wall.

9 hours ago · Unlike · 2

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Olusola Osineye They keep deceiving themselves. They will wake up when there's nothing left to control.

8 hours ago · Unlike · 1

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Charles Otika This weak centre thing failed in the past

It ended in a civil war.

The political system that subsists now is best for us. All we need now are adjustment s that will enable us contend with the monster of ethnicity

6 hours ago via mobile · Unlike · 1

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Ken Nwankwo Mr. Otika ur argument's a recipe for disaster. Any call for the status quo is a call for continued corruption, underdevelopnent, violence and slavery. It is simply the bid to unduly strenghten the centre that created unusual awareness of ethnic identity in Nig which is fuelling almost all the ills of the country today. Meaningful development can only take place in a robust, humane atmosphere. Anything else'l create a path for retrogression.

6 hours ago via mobile · Unlike · 2

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Olusola Osineye @Charles, but there was never really a time the center was weak. It only grew into a monster as we adopted unitary system. As long as the center controls the military and intelligence, it will remain strong. We need to devolve power to the ethnic groups. The past you referred to failed because of massive corruption, which has grown in leaps and bounds.

5 hours ago · Unlike · 1

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Obinna Aligwekwe It is actually a relatively weaker centre that will help our country. The first republic may have been a failure in the eyes of those who lived at the time. In retrospect, I think it was a form of success, and had the military stayed put in their barracks, we would have evolved into a more stable polity by now. All the military did was to put Nigeria in state of suspended animation. We only resumed from where we stopped in 1966......in 1999, after an avoidable detour via several military coups and a civil war.

2 hours ago · Unlike · 2

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Charles Otika We are underdeveloped and too diverse. Only a strong presidency can move us forward. In future when we become more civil, then we can embrace these domestic ideals. Many of the great nations we know today had strong leaders when they were at our level of social development.

55 minutes ago via mobile · Unlike · 1

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Charles Otika I meant to say, romantic ideals.

55 minutes ago via mobile · Like

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Obinna Aligwekwe It depends on what you mean by strong presidency. If you mean a presidency that holds all allocations and disburses it to the states like is currently the norm, then there will be an unhealthy scramble for the centre. Resource-wise, more powers should ...See More

49 minutes ago · Unlike · 1

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Olusola Osineye Charles Otika,
Your idea is only viable if we are homogenous. We are not one country. We are many countries forced together with a gun pointed to our head. We can't have the type of Presidency you talk about. Obj is strong, but insincere and corrupt; B...See More

48 minutes ago · Unlike · 1

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Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju Im in awe over this thread.

33 minutes ago · Like

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I beg, make una no vex.

I have to compile this thread to Word and PDF for distribution.

Its an education in national and international politics.

The compilation wont be as neat as it could be, since that would take me more time than I would like to commit right now, but all your guys have said will be there since I will simply copy and paste the entire thread as it is so far.

Will first send the compilation  to Olusola, the account owner.

Then distribute on listserves.

Please forgive the peremptory action.