Table 1
The Annulled June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Elections:
Unofficial Results
State | Rank by 1991 Census | Rank by Total 1993 Total Votes | Votes Abiola | Votes Tofa | Total Votes Cast | Abiola % | Tofa % | Region |
Lagos | 1 | 2 | 883,965 | 149,432 | 1,033,397 | 85.54 | 14.46 | SW |
Kano | 2 | 22 | 169,519 | 154,809 | 324,328 | 52.27 | 47.73 | NC |
Sokoto | 3 | 12 | 97,726 | 372,250 | 469,976 | 20.79 | 79.21 | NW |
Bauchi | 4 | 4 | 339,339 | 524,836 | 864,175 | 39.27 | 60.73 | NE |
Rivers | 5 | 3 | 370,678 | 640,973 | 1,011,651 | 36.64 | 63.36 | MN |
Kaduna | 6 | 5 | 389,713 | 356,880 | 746,593 | 52.20 | 47.80 | NC |
Ondo | 7 | 1 | 883,024 | 162,994 | 1,046,018 | 84.42 | 15.58 | SW |
Katsina | 8 | 13 | 171,162 | 271,077 | 442,239 | 38.70 | 61.30 | NC |
Oyo | 9 | 7 | 536,014 | 105,785 | 641,799 | 83.52 | 16.48 | SW |
Plateau | 10 | 6 | 417,565 | 259,394 | 676,959 | 61.68 | 38.32 | MB |
Enugu | 11 | 8 | 263,101 | 254,050 | 517,151 | 50.88 | 49.12 | EA |
Jigawa | 12 | 27 | 138,557 | 89,636 | 228,193 | 60.72 | 39.28 | NC |
Benue | 13 | 15 | 246,830 | 186,302 | 433,132 | 56.99 | 43.01 | MB |
Anambra | 14 | 18 | 212,024 | 155,029 | 367,053 | 57.76 | 42.24 | EA |
Borno | 15 | 25 | 153,490 | 128,684 | 282,174 | 54.40 | 45.60 | NE |
Delta | 16 | 11 | 327,277 | 146,001 | 473,278 | 69.15 | 30.85 | MN |
Imo | 17 | 20 | 159,350 | 195,836 | 355,186 | 44.86 | 55.14 | EA |
Niger | 18 | 19 | 136,350 | 221,437 | 357,787 | 38.11 | 61.89 | NW |
AkwaIbom | 19 | 16 | 214,782 | 159,342 | 374,124 | 57.41 | 42.59 | MN |
Ogun | 20 | 14 | 365,266 | 72,068 | 437,334 | 83.52 | 16.48 | SW |
Abia | 21 | 26 | 105,273 | 151,227 | 256,500 | 41.04 | 58.96 | EA |
Osun | 22 | 10 | 425,725 | 59,246 | 484,971 | 87.78 | 12.22 | SW |
Edo | 23 | 23 | 205,407 | 103,572 | 308,979 | 66.48 | 33.52 | MN |
Adamawa | 24 | 24 | 140,875 | 167,239 | 308,114 | 45.72 | 54.28 | NE |
Kogi | 25 | 9 | 222,700 | 265,732 | 488,432 | 45.59 | 54.41 | MC |
Kebbi | 26 | 28 | 70,219 | 144,808 | 215,027 | 32.66 | 67.34 | NW |
CrsRiver27 | 21 | 189,303 | 153,452 | 342,755 | 55.23 | 44.77 | MN |
|
Kwara | 28 | 17 | 288,270 | 80,219 | 368,489 | 78.23 | 21.77 | MC |
Taraba | 29 | 30 | 101,887 | 64,001 | 165,888 | 61.42 | 38.58 | MB |
Yobe | 30 | 29 | 111,887 | 64,061 | 175,948 | 63.59 | 36.41 | NE |
FCT | 31 | 31 | 19,968 | 18,313 | 38,281 | 52.16 | 47.84 | MC |
Total |
|
| 8,357,246 | 5,878,685 | 14,235,931 | 58.71 | 41.29 |
|
Note the regions:
South-West (SW): Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Oshun {Abiola wins all 5 states}
East (EA): Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia {Abiola wins the first 2 states}
North-West (NW): Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi {Tofa wins all 3 states}
North-East (NE): Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Yobe {Abiola wins first 2 states}
North-Central(NC): Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina {Abiola wins first 3 states}
Middle-Belt (MB): Plateau, Benue, Taraba {Abiola wins all 3 states}
Minority (MN): Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Cross-River, Rivers {Abiola wins
first 4 states}
Mid-Central (MC): Kwara, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kogi {Abiola
wins first 2 states}
The "traditional" Northern Region comprised the NW, NE, NC, MB and MC regions,
the Western Region was the SW region, the Eastern Region comprised EA region,
Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers and Rivers States, and the Mid-West Region
comprised Edo and Delta states.
Table 2:
State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
State | Rank by 1991 Census | Rank by Total Votes | 1991 Census Population Figure | Total Votes Cast | Election Participation Index (EPI) | Rank by EPI | Winner | Win Ratio |
Lagos | 1 | 2 | 5,685,781 | 1,033,397 | 40.21 | 13 | Abiola | 5.92 |
Kano | 2 | 22 | 5,362,040 | 324,328 | 12.74 | 31 | Abiola | 1.10 |
Sokoto | 3 | 12 | 4,392,391 | 469,976 | 23.67 | 27 | Tofa | 3.81 |
Bauchi | 4 | 4 | 4,294,413 | 864,175 | 44.52 | 7 | Tofa | 1.55 |
Rivers | 5 | 3 | 3,983,857 | 1,011,651 | 56.18 | 2 | Tofa | 1.73 |
Kaduna | 6 | 5 | 3,969,252 | 746,593 | 41.62 | 8 | Abiola | 1.09 |
Ondo | 7 | 1 | 3,884,485 | 1,046,018 | 59.58 | 1 | Abiola | 5.42 |
Katsina | 8 | 13 | 3,878,344 | 442,239 | 25.23 | 23 | Tofa | 1.58 |
Oyo | 9 | 7 | 3,488,789 | 641,799 | 40.70 | 11 | Abiola | 5.07 |
Plateau | 10 | 6 | 3,283,784 | 676,959 | 45.61 | 6 | Abiola | 1.61 |
Enugu | 11 | 8 | 3,161,295 | 517,151 | 36.19 | 14 | Abiola | 1.04 |
Jigawa | 12 | 27 | 2,829,929 | 228,193 | 17.84 | 30 | Abiola | 1.55 |
Benue | 13 | 15 | 2,780,398 | 433,132 | 34.47 | 16 | Abiola | 1.33 |
Anambra | 14 | 18 | 2,767,903 | 367,053 | 29.34 | 21 | Abiola | 1.37 |
Borno | 15 | 25 | 2,596,589 | 282,174 | 24.04 | 26 | Abiola | 1.92 |
Delta | 16 | 11 | 2,570,181 | 473,278 | 40.74 | 10 | Abiola | 2.24 |
Imo | 17 | 20 | 2,485,499 | 355,186 | 31.62 | 20 | Tofa | 1.23 |
Niger | 18 | 19 | 2,482,367 | 357,787 | 31.89 | 18 | Tofa | 1.62 |
AkwaIbom | 19 | 16 | 2,359,736 | 374,124 | 35.08 | 15 | Abiola | 1.35 |
Ogun | 20 | 14 | 2,338,570 | 437,334 | 41.38 | 9 | Abiola | 5.07 |
Abia | 21 | 26 | 2,297,978 | 256,500 | 24.70 | 25 | Tofa | 1.44 |
Osun | 22 | 10 | 2,203,016 | 484,971 | 48.71 | 5 | Abiola | 7.18 |
Edo | 23 | 23 | 2,159,848 | 308,979 | 31.65 | 19 | Abiola | 1.98 |
Adamawa | 24 | 24 | 2,124,049 | 308,114 | 32.09 | 17 | Tofa | 1.19 |
Kogi | 25 | 9 | 2,099,046 | 488,432 | 51.48 | 4 | Tofa | 1.19 |
Kebbi | 26 | 28 | 2,062,226 | 215,027 | 23.07 | 28 | Tofa | 2.06 |
CrsRiver | 27 | 21 | 1,865,604 | 342,755 | 40.65 | 12 | Abiola | 1.23 |
Kwara | 28 | 17 | 1,566,469 | 368,489 | 52.05 | 3 | Abiola | 3.59 |
Taraba | 29 | 30 | 1,480,590 | 165,888 | 24.79 | 24 | Abiola | 1.59 |
Yobe | 30 | 29 | 1,411,481 | 175,948 | 27.58 | 22 | Abiola | 1.75 |
FCT | 31 | 31 | 378,671 | 38,281 | 22.37 | 29 | Abiola | 1.09 |
Total |
|
| 88,515,581 | 14,235,931 | 35.58 |
| Abiola | 1.42 |
Notes on Table 2:
Election Participation Index = 100 * Numerator / Denominator
Numerator: Total number of votes cast in State (or region)
Denominator:1991 State (or Regional) Census multiplied by (40/88.5)
The Denominator is an estimate of the voting population (could
be replaced by actual voter registration); 40 million is the voting
population, 88.5 million is the total Nigerian population. The
denominator presumes that the voter population is distributed uniformly
throughout the country.
Note that an index close to 100 would indicate almost 100% voting. An
index of over 100 could indicate some election fraud, unless there is
significant on-sight registration.
Election Participation Ranking:
Ranking 1-10: Ondo*, Rivers, Kwara*, Kogi, Osun*, Plateau*, Bauchi, Kaduna*,
Ogun*, Delta* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
11-20: Oyo*, Cross-River*, Lagos*, Enugu*, Akwa-Ibom*, Benue*, Adamawa,
Niger, Edo*, Imo {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
21-31: Anambra*, Yobe*, Katsina, Taraba*, Abia, Borno*, Sokoto,
Kebbi, FCT*, Jigawa*, Kano* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 4}
Win ratio = Votes for winner / votes for opponent
Table 3
Regional Analysis of 1993 Presidential Election Results
Region | Rank by 1991 Census | Rank by Total Votes Cast | Rank by Election Participation | Votes Cast for Abiola | Votes Cast for Tofa | Total Votes Cast | % Abiola | % Tofa |
SouthWest(SW) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3,093,994 | 549,525 | 3,643,519 | 84.92 | 15.08 |
East (EA) | 4 | 5 | 6 | 739,748 | 756,142 | 1,495,890 | 49.45 | 50.55 |
NorthWest(NW) | 6 | 7 | 7 | 304,295 | 738,495 | 1,042,790 | 29.18 | 70.82 |
NorthEast(NE) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 745,591 | 884,820 | 1,630,411 | 45.73 | 54.27 |
NorthCentral(NC) | 2 | 3 | 8 | 868,951 | 872,402 | 1,741,353 | 49.90 | 50.10 |
MiddleBelt (MB) | 7 | 6 | 4 | 766,282 | 509,697 | 1,275,979 | 60.05 | 39.95 |
Minority (MN) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1,307,447 | 1,203,340 | 2,510,787 | 52.07 | 47.93 |
Mid-Central (MC) | 8 | 8 | 1 | 530,938 | 364,264 | 895,202 | 59.31 | 40.69 |
Total |
|
|
| 8,357,246 | 5,878,685 | 14,235,931 | 58.71 | 41.29 |
Table 4:
Comparative Regional Analysis of Census/Results
Region | 1991 Census Count | Total 1993 Election Votes | Election Participation Index (EPI) | Rank By Census | Rank By Total Votes | Rank by EPI | Winner | Win Ratio |
SouthWest(SW) | 17,600,641 | 3,643,519 | 45.80 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Abiola | 5.63 |
East (EA) | 10,712,675 | 1,495,890 | 30.89 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Tofa | 1.02 |
NorthWest(NW) | 8,936,984 | 1,042,790 | 25.82 | 6 | 7 | 7 | Tofa | 2.43 |
NorthEast(NE) | 10,426,532 | 1,630,411 | 34.60 | 5 | 4 | 5 | Tofa | 1.19 |
NorthCentral(NC) | 16,309,565 | 1,741,353 | 23.62 | 2 | 3 | 8 | Tofa | 1.00 |
MiddleBelt (MB) | 7,544,772 | 1,275,979 | 37.42 | 7 | 6 | 4 | Abiola | 1.50 |
Minority (MN) | 12,939,226 | 2,510,787 | 42.93 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Abiola | 1.09 |
Mid-Central (MC) | 4,044,186 | 895,202 | 48.97 | 8 | 8 | 1 | Abiola | 1.46 |
Total | 88,514,581 | 14,235,931 | 35.58 |
|
|
| Abiola | 1.42 |
( Subscribers)
The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded. The Babangida government which ordered the election, cancelled it before the results were all announced. The election commission announced some but not all the results. It did not announce the final election result. Abiola could therefore not have been duly elected president in the said elections. He was not. Was Abiola the more probable winner of the election? Yes. Was he robbed of victory? May be. All credible reports on votes cast before the election was cancelled indicated that Abiola was leading his opponent. Abiola claimed victory. His opponent did not. Did this mean that Abiola won the election and his opponent lost the election? No.
The Babanginda government (BG)and the Abacha government which was a consequence of the BG cancellation of the election, must share responsibility for the so-called pro-democracy movements that challenged the election's cancellation and spurn some of Nigeria's most corrupt opportunist politicians. I say so-called pro-democracy movements because the movements' members who later worked their way into government by hook or crook have mostly taken every opportunity to continually plunder the public purse. For many of these people, Abiola passing would seem to be a greater blessing than they might have hoped for.
oa
-----Original Message-----
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of kenneth harrow
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 11:37 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the darkdeal guys
you don't have to respond if you don't want to, but i am pretty much at sea over what is being charged and countercharged.
again, my knowledge is limited, of course. we all know abiola had been elected, thrown in jail by babangida, died in prison, was succeeded by shonekan whom abacha overthrew.
then the picture of abacha is a descent into a nightmare for nigeria.
that sums up my superficial knowledge.
so, what is this about supporting his mandate and the pro-democracy movement etc? could anyone help clarify this for me?
(wikipedia is no help)
ken
On 6/14/13 8:20 AM, Ikhide wrote:
> Bolaji, you swung unnecessary missiles at me thusly:
>
> "You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in the US with respect to June 12."
>
> You read me too hastily, my dear friend. I could not have over represented myself. Read me again; I was not referring to Abiola's mandate, I was referring to Abacha's mandate. I had nothing to do with the prodemocracy struggle. As Ayo correctly noted, I had nothing to so with Abiola's mandate. How would you know that I did not spend my relative youth and family resources supporting Abacha?
>
> Abegi. Leave matter. Be well.
>
> - Ikhide
>
> On Jun 14, 2013, at 7:41 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 2. You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative
>> youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the
>> actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did
>> not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in
>> the US with respect to June 12. I regard it as a phase in my life,
>> but I am
--
kenneth w. harrow
faculty excellence advocate
distinguished professor of english
michigan state university
department of english
619 red cedar road
room C-614 wells hall
east lansing, mi 48824
ph. 517 803 8839
harrow@msu.edu
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