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Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

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Ogugua Anunoby:

Okay, I believe that you lied, but I should not have said so so blandly.  Like a typical social scientist, I should have said "On the one hand....on the hand" as your wrote below.

So my apologies.  Maybe I was rankled by the relish with which you related the murder of the "electoral baby"  - taking a very legalistic view and cover - or rankled even more by your closing hagiographic and speculatively libelous paragraph:

QUOTE

The Babanginda government (BG)and the Abacha government which was a consequence of the BG cancellation of the election,  must share responsibility for the so-called pro-democracy movements that challenged the election's cancellation and spurn some of Nigeria's most corrupt opportunist politicians.  I say so-called pro-democracy movements because the movements' members who later worked their way into government by hook or crook have mostly taken every opportunity to continually plunder the public purse. For many of these people, Abiola passing would seem to be a greater blessing than they might have hoped for.

UNQUOTE

I have moved on too.

There you have it.


Bolaji Aluko


On Sat, Jun 15, 2013 at 7:09 AM, Anunoby, Ogugua <AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu> wrote:

Bolaji Aluko,

 

You continue to amaze your readers by your high propensity for belligerent rudeness however uncalled for it is for you to be. Have you not learned that you do not tell the truth because you say the other person has lied? Do you know that it is a lie to say that one has lied when the one has not?  One has not lied because you, Bolaji say so. That the June 12, 1993 election was not concluded is fact, historical fact I might add. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu  "STARTED to announce what was already known (you neither state who already knew nor identify their source(s)) - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot." Are you aware and concerned at all about the vainness and risks of taking a firm position based on what even Bolaji acknowledges is "known UN-OFFICIALLY" ? Frustration with a state of affairs does not make facts non-facts, or non-facts facts. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu did not concluded his announcement of the result of the election before the Military government cancelled the election which it had the authority and power to do. Nigeria's presidential elections are matters of law to be conducted and concluded in line with the law. An election is not concluded because Bolaji peddles some numbers. says that it was. Under the extant laws in force in Nigeria on June 1993, the election in issue was not concluded. An election is concluded after the lawful election authority, in compliance with the extant laws, formally confirms that it is by a formal and official announcement of the final election result, and declares a winner. Neither one of the above happened with respect to the June 12, 1993. There was no legally declared winner of that election.

I might add that you, Bolaji are quickly mastering the folly of calling anyone you disagree with, a liar. Do I see an postulant bully here? There is such a thing as respect for people and facts even when one disagrees with them. I am continually reminded that maturity does not always correlate with age, academic learning, or status.  I have moved on.

 

oa    

 

From:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Mobolaji Aluko
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 7:31 PM
To: USAAfrica Dialogue
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

 

 

Ogugua Anunoby:

 

The political casuistry that you outlined below - a euphemism for dishonesty - was rampant among a clique of people during the June 12 period who did not wish to give other reasons why they did not support the June 12 movement.

 

It is a lie that the election was not concluded.  The date was announced, the period of voting was announced, the counting was done.  All - I mean ALL -  came and went.  The results were COLLATED at each polling unit.  Nwosu STARTED to announce what was already known - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot.

 

And that is what you mean that "The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded?"

 

Anybody maintaining such a casuistry 20 years after - unless of course he was  born AFTER June 12, 1993,  in which  case you should have written that "you were told that the June 12 Presidential Election was not concluded" - should be ashamed of himself.

 

Finally, I dump once again my analysis of the June 12 results below.....I did not formulate the numbers in my head.

 

And there you have it.

 

 

 

Bolaji Aluko

 

 

Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results 

 

October 1994

 

Table 1

 

The Annulled June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Elections:
Unofficial Results


 

State

Rank by 1991 Census

Rank by Total 1993 Total Votes

Votes Abiola

Votes Tofa

Total Votes Cast

Abiola %

Tofa

%

Region

Lagos

1

2

883,965

149,432

1,033,397

85.54

14.46

SW

Kano

2

22

169,519

154,809

324,328

52.27

47.73

NC

Sokoto

3

12

97,726

372,250

469,976

20.79

79.21

NW

Bauchi

4

4

339,339

524,836

864,175

39.27

60.73

NE

Rivers

5

3

370,678

640,973

1,011,651

36.64

63.36

MN

Kaduna

6

5

389,713

356,880

746,593

52.20

47.80

NC

Ondo

7

1

883,024

162,994

1,046,018

84.42

15.58

SW

Katsina

8

13

171,162

271,077

442,239

38.70

61.30

NC

Oyo

9

7

536,014

105,785

641,799

83.52

16.48

SW

Plateau

10

6

417,565

259,394

676,959

61.68

38.32

MB

Enugu

11

8

263,101

254,050

517,151

50.88

49.12

EA

Jigawa

12

27

138,557

89,636

228,193

60.72

39.28

NC

Benue

13

15

246,830

186,302

433,132

56.99

43.01

MB

Anambra

14

18

212,024

155,029

367,053

57.76

42.24

EA

Borno

15

25

153,490

128,684

282,174

54.40

45.60

NE

Delta

16

11

327,277

146,001

473,278

69.15

30.85

MN

Imo

17

20

159,350

195,836

355,186

44.86

55.14

EA

Niger

18

19

136,350

221,437

357,787

38.11

61.89

NW

AkwaIbom

19

16

214,782

159,342

374,124

57.41

42.59

MN

Ogun

20

14

365,266

72,068

437,334

83.52

16.48

SW

Abia

21

26

105,273

151,227

256,500

41.04

58.96

EA

Osun

22

10

425,725

59,246

484,971

87.78

12.22

SW

Edo

23

23

205,407

103,572

308,979

66.48

33.52

MN

Adamawa

24

24

140,875

167,239

308,114

45.72

54.28

NE

Kogi

25

9

222,700

265,732

488,432

45.59

54.41

MC

Kebbi

26

28

70,219

144,808

215,027

32.66

67.34

NW

CrsRiver27

21

189,303

153,452

342,755

55.23

44.77

MN

 

Kwara

28

17

288,270

80,219

368,489

78.23

21.77

MC

Taraba

29

30

101,887

64,001

165,888

61.42

38.58

MB

Yobe

30

29

111,887

64,061

175,948

63.59

36.41

NE

FCT

31

31

19,968

18,313

38,281

52.16

47.84

MC

Total

 

 

8,357,246

5,878,685

14,235,931

58.71

41.29

 



Note the regions:

South-West (SW): Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Oshun {Abiola wins all 5 states}
East (EA): Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia {Abiola wins the first 2 states}
North-West (NW): Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi {Tofa wins all 3 states}
North-East (NE): Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Yobe {Abiola wins first 2 states}
North-Central(NC): Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina {Abiola wins first 3 states}
Middle-Belt (MB): Plateau, Benue, Taraba {Abiola wins all 3 states}
Minority (MN): Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Cross-River, Rivers {Abiola wins
first 4 states}
Mid-Central (MC): Kwara, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kogi {Abiola
wins first 2 states}

The "traditional" Northern Region comprised the NW, NE, NC, MB and MC regions,
the Western Region was the SW region, the Eastern Region comprised EA region,
Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers and Rivers States, and the Mid-West Region
comprised Edo and Delta states.
 

 


Table 2:

State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
 

 

State

Rank by 1991 Census

Rank by Total

Votes

1991 Census

Population

Figure

Total Votes Cast

Election

Participation

Index (EPI)

Rank by

EPI

Winner

Win Ratio

Lagos

1

2

5,685,781

1,033,397

40.21

13

Abiola

5.92

Kano

2

22

5,362,040

324,328

12.74

31

Abiola

1.10

Sokoto

3

12

4,392,391

469,976

23.67

27

Tofa

3.81

Bauchi

4

4

4,294,413

864,175

44.52

7

Tofa

1.55

Rivers

5

3

3,983,857

1,011,651

56.18

2

Tofa

1.73

Kaduna

6

5

3,969,252

746,593

41.62

8

Abiola

1.09

Ondo

7

1

3,884,485

1,046,018

59.58

1

Abiola

5.42

Katsina

8

13

3,878,344

442,239

25.23

23

Tofa

1.58

Oyo

9

7

3,488,789

641,799

40.70

11

Abiola

5.07

Plateau

10

6

3,283,784

676,959

45.61

6

Abiola

1.61

Enugu

11

8

3,161,295

517,151

36.19

14

Abiola

1.04

Jigawa

12

27

2,829,929

228,193

17.84

30

Abiola

1.55

Benue

13

15

2,780,398

433,132

34.47

16

Abiola

1.33

Anambra

14

18

2,767,903

367,053

29.34

21

Abiola

1.37

Borno

15

25

2,596,589

282,174

24.04

26

Abiola

1.92

Delta

16

11

2,570,181

473,278

40.74

10

Abiola

2.24

Imo

17

20

2,485,499

355,186

31.62

20

Tofa

1.23

Niger

18

19

2,482,367

357,787

31.89

18

Tofa

1.62

AkwaIbom

19

16

2,359,736

374,124

35.08

15

Abiola

1.35

Ogun

20

14

2,338,570

437,334

41.38

9

Abiola

5.07

Abia

21

26

2,297,978

256,500

24.70

25

Tofa

1.44

Osun

22

10

2,203,016

484,971

48.71

5

Abiola

7.18

Edo

23

23

2,159,848

308,979

31.65

19

Abiola

1.98

Adamawa

24

24

2,124,049

308,114

32.09

17

Tofa

1.19

Kogi

25

9

2,099,046

488,432

51.48

4

Tofa

1.19

Kebbi

26

28

2,062,226

215,027

23.07

28

Tofa

2.06

CrsRiver

27

21

1,865,604

342,755

40.65

12

Abiola

1.23

Kwara

28

17

1,566,469

368,489

52.05

3

Abiola

3.59

Taraba

29

30

1,480,590

165,888

24.79

24

Abiola

1.59

Yobe

30

29

1,411,481

175,948

27.58

22

Abiola

1.75

FCT

31

31

378,671

38,281

22.37

29

Abiola

1.09

Total

 

 

88,515,581

14,235,931

35.58

 

Abiola

1.42



Notes on Table 2:

Election Participation Index = 100 * Numerator / Denominator

Numerator: Total number of votes cast in State (or region)
Denominator:1991 State (or Regional) Census multiplied by (40/88.5)

The Denominator is an estimate of the voting population (could
be replaced by actual voter registration); 40 million is the voting
population, 88.5 million is the total Nigerian population. The
denominator presumes that the voter population is distributed uniformly
throughout the country.
Note that an index close to 100 would indicate almost 100% voting. An
index of over 100 could indicate some election fraud, unless there is
significant on-sight registration.

Election Participation Ranking:
Ranking 1-10: Ondo*, Rivers, Kwara*, Kogi, Osun*, Plateau*, Bauchi, Kaduna*,
Ogun*, Delta* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
11-20: Oyo*, Cross-River*, Lagos*, Enugu*, Akwa-Ibom*, Benue*, Adamawa,
Niger, Edo*, Imo {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
21-31: Anambra*, Yobe*, Katsina, Taraba*, Abia, Borno*, Sokoto,
Kebbi, FCT*, Jigawa*, Kano* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 4}

Win ratio = Votes for winner / votes for opponent

 

 

 

Table 3
Regional Analysis of 1993 Presidential Election Results


 

Region

Rank by 1991 Census

Rank by Total Votes Cast

Rank by Election Participation

Votes Cast for Abiola

Votes Cast for Tofa

Total Votes Cast

%

Abiola

% Tofa

SouthWest(SW)

1

1

2

3,093,994

549,525

3,643,519

84.92

15.08

East  (EA)

4

5

6

739,748

756,142

1,495,890

49.45

50.55

NorthWest(NW)

6

7

7

304,295

738,495

1,042,790

29.18

70.82

NorthEast(NE)

5

4

5

745,591

884,820

1,630,411

45.73

54.27

NorthCentral(NC)

2

3

8

868,951

872,402

1,741,353

49.90

50.10

MiddleBelt (MB)

7

6

4

766,282

509,697

1,275,979

60.05

39.95

Minority (MN)

3

2

3

1,307,447

1,203,340

2,510,787

52.07

47.93

Mid-Central (MC)

8

8

1

530,938

364,264

895,202

59.31

40.69

Total

 

 

 

8,357,246

5,878,685

14,235,931

58.71

41.29



 


Table 4:

Comparative Regional Analysis of Census/Results


 

Region

1991 Census

Count

Total 1993

Election

Votes

Election

Participation

Index (EPI)

Rank

By

Census

Rank

By

Total

Votes

Rank by

EPI

Winner

Win

Ratio

SouthWest(SW)

17,600,641

3,643,519

45.80

1

1

2

Abiola

5.63

East  (EA)

10,712,675

1,495,890

30.89

4

5

6

Tofa

1.02

NorthWest(NW)

8,936,984

1,042,790

25.82

6

7

7

Tofa

2.43

NorthEast(NE)

10,426,532

1,630,411

34.60

5

4

5

Tofa

1.19

NorthCentral(NC)

16,309,565

1,741,353

23.62

2

3

8

Tofa

1.00

MiddleBelt (MB)

7,544,772

1,275,979

37.42

7

6

4

Abiola

1.50

Minority (MN)

12,939,226

2,510,787

42.93

3

2

3

Abiola

1.09

Mid-Central (MC)

4,044,186

895,202

48.97

8

8

1

Abiola

1.46

Total

88,514,581

14,235,931

35.58

 

 

 

Abiola

1.42



 

 

 

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On Fri, Jun 14, 2013 at 11:48 PM, Anunoby, Ogugua <AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu> wrote:

The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded. The Babangida government which ordered the election, cancelled it before the results were all announced. The election commission announced some but not all the results. It did not announce the final election result. Abiola could therefore not have been duly elected president in the said elections. He was not. Was Abiola the more probable winner of the election? Yes. Was he robbed of victory? May be. All credible reports on votes cast before the election was cancelled indicated that Abiola was leading his opponent. Abiola claimed victory. His opponent did not. Did this mean that Abiola won the election and  his opponent lost the election? No.
The Babanginda government (BG)and the Abacha government which was a consequence of the BG cancellation of the election,  must share responsibility for the so-called pro-democracy movements that challenged the election's cancellation and spurn some of Nigeria's most corrupt opportunist politicians.  I say so-called pro-democracy movements because the movements' members who later worked their way into government by hook or crook have mostly taken every opportunity to continually plunder the public purse. For many of these people, Abiola passing would seem to be a greater blessing than they might have hoped for.

oa


-----Original Message-----
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of kenneth harrow
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 11:37 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

deal guys
you don't have to respond if you don't want to, but i am pretty much at sea over what is being charged and countercharged.
again, my knowledge is limited, of course. we all know abiola had been elected, thrown in jail by babangida, died in prison, was succeeded by shonekan whom abacha overthrew.
then the picture of abacha is a descent into a nightmare for nigeria.
that sums up my superficial knowledge.
so, what is this about supporting his mandate and the pro-democracy movement etc? could anyone help clarify this for me?
(wikipedia is no help)
ken

On 6/14/13 8:20 AM, Ikhide wrote:
> Bolaji, you swung unnecessary missiles at me thusly:
>
> "You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the actualization of Abacha's mandate."  Absolutely untrue....even I did not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in the US with respect to June 12."
>
> You read me too hastily, my dear friend. I could not have over represented myself. Read me again; I was not referring to Abiola's mandate, I was referring to Abacha's mandate. I had nothing to do with the prodemocracy struggle.  As Ayo correctly noted, I had nothing to so with Abiola's mandate. How would you know that I did not spend my relative youth and family resources supporting Abacha?
>
> Abegi. Leave matter. Be well.
>
> - Ikhide
>
> On Jun 14, 2013, at 7:41 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 2.  You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative
>> youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the
>> actualization of Abacha's mandate."  Absolutely untrue....even I did
>> not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in
>> the US with respect to June 12.  I regard it as a phase in my life,
>> but I am

--
kenneth w. harrow
faculty excellence advocate
distinguished professor of english
michigan state university
department of english
619 red cedar road
room C-614 wells hall
east lansing, mi 48824
ph. 517 803 8839
harrow@msu.edu

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