--Bolaji Aluko,
You continue to amaze your readers by your high propensity for belligerent rudeness however uncalled for it is for you to be. Have you not learned that you do not tell the truth because you say the other person has lied? Do you know that it is a lie to say that one has lied when the one has not? One has not lied because you, Bolaji say so. That the June 12, 1993 election was not concluded is fact, historical fact I might add. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu "STARTED to announce what was already known (you neither state who already knew nor identify their source(s)) - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot." Are you aware and concerned at all about the vainness and risks of taking a firm position based on what even Bolaji acknowledges is "known UN-OFFICIALLY" ? Frustration with a state of affairs does not make facts non-facts, or non-facts facts. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu did not concluded his announcement of the result of the election before the Military government cancelled the election which it had the authority and power to do. Nigeria's presidential elections are matters of law to be conducted and concluded in line with the law. An election is not concluded because Bolaji peddles some numbers. says that it was. Under the extant laws in force in Nigeria on June 1993, the election in issue was not concluded. An election is concluded after the lawful election authority, in compliance with the extant laws, formally confirms that it is by a formal and official announcement of the final election result, and declares a winner. Neither one of the above happened with respect to the June 12, 1993. There was no legally declared winner of that election.
I might add that you, Bolaji are quickly mastering the folly of calling anyone you disagree with, a liar. Do I see an postulant bully here? There is such a thing as respect for people and facts even when one disagrees with them. I am continually reminded that maturity does not always correlate with age, academic learning, or status. I have moved on.
oa
From:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Mobolaji Aluko
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 7:31 PM
To: USAAfrica Dialogue
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark
Ogugua Anunoby:
The political casuistry that you outlined below - a euphemism for dishonesty - was rampant among a clique of people during the June 12 period who did not wish to give other reasons why they did not support the June 12 movement.
It is a lie that the election was not concluded. The date was announced, the period of voting was announced, the counting was done. All - I mean ALL - came and went. The results were COLLATED at each polling unit. Nwosu STARTED to announce what was already known - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot.
And that is what you mean that "The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded?"
Anybody maintaining such a casuistry 20 years after - unless of course he was born AFTER June 12, 1993, in which case you should have written that "you were told that the June 12 Presidential Election was not concluded" - should be ashamed of himself.
Finally, I dump once again my analysis of the June 12 results below.....I did not formulate the numbers in my head.
And there you have it.
Bolaji Aluko
Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results
October 1994
Table 1
The Annulled June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Elections:
Unofficial Results
State
Rank by 1991 Census
Rank by Total 1993 Total Votes
Votes Abiola
Votes Tofa
Total Votes Cast
Abiola %
Tofa
%
Region
Lagos
1
2
883,965
149,432
1,033,397
85.54
14.46
SW
Kano
2
22
169,519
154,809
324,328
52.27
47.73
NC
Sokoto
3
12
97,726
372,250
469,976
20.79
79.21
NW
Bauchi
4
4
339,339
524,836
864,175
39.27
60.73
NE
Rivers
5
3
370,678
640,973
1,011,651
36.64
63.36
MN
Kaduna
6
5
389,713
356,880
746,593
52.20
47.80
NC
Ondo
7
1
883,024
162,994
1,046,018
84.42
15.58
SW
Katsina
8
13
171,162
271,077
442,239
38.70
61.30
NC
Oyo
9
7
536,014
105,785
641,799
83.52
16.48
SW
Plateau
10
6
417,565
259,394
676,959
61.68
38.32
MB
Enugu
11
8
263,101
254,050
517,151
50.88
49.12
EA
Jigawa
12
27
138,557
89,636
228,193
60.72
39.28
NC
Benue
13
15
246,830
186,302
433,132
56.99
43.01
MB
Anambra
14
18
212,024
155,029
367,053
57.76
42.24
EA
Borno
15
25
153,490
128,684
282,174
54.40
45.60
NE
Delta
16
11
327,277
146,001
473,278
69.15
30.85
MN
Imo
17
20
159,350
195,836
355,186
44.86
55.14
EA
Niger
18
19
136,350
221,437
357,787
38.11
61.89
NW
AkwaIbom
19
16
214,782
159,342
374,124
57.41
42.59
MN
Ogun
20
14
365,266
72,068
437,334
83.52
16.48
SW
Abia
21
26
105,273
151,227
256,500
41.04
58.96
EA
Osun
22
10
425,725
59,246
484,971
87.78
12.22
SW
Edo
23
23
205,407
103,572
308,979
66.48
33.52
MN
Adamawa
24
24
140,875
167,239
308,114
45.72
54.28
NE
Kogi
25
9
222,700
265,732
488,432
45.59
54.41
MC
Kebbi
26
28
70,219
144,808
215,027
32.66
67.34
NW
CrsRiver27
21
189,303
153,452
342,755
55.23
44.77
MN
Kwara
28
17
288,270
80,219
368,489
78.23
21.77
MC
Taraba
29
30
101,887
64,001
165,888
61.42
38.58
MB
Yobe
30
29
111,887
64,061
175,948
63.59
36.41
NE
FCT
31
31
19,968
18,313
38,281
52.16
47.84
MC
Total
8,357,246
5,878,685
14,235,931
58.71
41.29
Note the regions:
South-West (SW): Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Oshun {Abiola wins all 5 states}
East (EA): Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia {Abiola wins the first 2 states}
North-West (NW): Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi {Tofa wins all 3 states}
North-East (NE): Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Yobe {Abiola wins first 2 states}
North-Central(NC): Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina {Abiola wins first 3 states}
Middle-Belt (MB): Plateau, Benue, Taraba {Abiola wins all 3 states}
Minority (MN): Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Cross-River, Rivers {Abiola wins
first 4 states}
Mid-Central (MC): Kwara, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kogi {Abiola
wins first 2 states}
The "traditional" Northern Region comprised the NW, NE, NC, MB and MC regions,
the Western Region was the SW region, the Eastern Region comprised EA region,
Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers and Rivers States, and the Mid-West Region
comprised Edo and Delta states.
Table 2:State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
State
Rank by 1991 Census
Rank by Total
Votes
1991 Census
Population
Figure
Total Votes Cast
Election
Participation
Index (EPI)
Rank by
EPI
Winner
Win Ratio
Lagos
1
2
5,685,781
1,033,397
40.21
13
Abiola
5.92
Kano
2
22
5,362,040
324,328
12.74
31
Abiola
1.10
Sokoto
3
12
4,392,391
469,976
23.67
27
Tofa
3.81
Bauchi
4
4
4,294,413
864,175
44.52
7
Tofa
1.55
Rivers
5
3
3,983,857
1,011,651
56.18
2
Tofa
1.73
Kaduna
6
5
3,969,252
746,593
41.62
8
Abiola
1.09
Ondo
7
1
3,884,485
1,046,018
59.58
1
Abiola
5.42
Katsina
8
13
3,878,344
442,239
25.23
23
Tofa
1.58
Oyo
9
7
3,488,789
641,799
40.70
11
Abiola
5.07
Plateau
10
6
3,283,784
676,959
45.61
6
Abiola
1.61
Enugu
11
8
3,161,295
517,151
36.19
14
Abiola
1.04
Jigawa
12
27
2,829,929
228,193
17.84
30
Abiola
1.55
Benue
13
15
2,780,398
433,132
34.47
16
Abiola
1.33
Anambra
14
18
2,767,903
367,053
29.34
21
Abiola
1.37
Borno
15
25
2,596,589
282,174
24.04
26
Abiola
1.92
Delta
16
11
2,570,181
473,278
40.74
10
Abiola
2.24
Imo
17
20
2,485,499
355,186
31.62
20
Tofa
1.23
Niger
18
19
2,482,367
357,787
31.89
18
Tofa
1.62
AkwaIbom
19
16
2,359,736
374,124
35.08
15
Abiola
1.35
Ogun
20
14
2,338,570
437,334
41.38
9
Abiola
5.07
Abia
21
26
2,297,978
256,500
24.70
25
Tofa
1.44
Osun
22
10
2,203,016
484,971
48.71
5
Abiola
7.18
Edo
23
23
2,159,848
308,979
31.65
19
Abiola
1.98
Adamawa
24
24
2,124,049
308,114
32.09
17
Tofa
1.19
Kogi
25
9
2,099,046
488,432
51.48
4
Tofa
1.19
Kebbi
26
28
2,062,226
215,027
23.07
28
Tofa
2.06
CrsRiver
27
21
1,865,604
342,755
40.65
12
Abiola
1.23
Kwara
28
17
1,566,469
368,489
52.05
3
Abiola
3.59
Taraba
29
30
1,480,590
165,888
24.79
24
Abiola
1.59
Yobe
30
29
1,411,481
175,948
27.58
22
Abiola
1.75
FCT
31
31
378,671
38,281
22.37
29
Abiola
1.09
Total
88,515,581
14,235,931
35.58
Abiola
1.42
Notes on Table 2:
Election Participation Index = 100 * Numerator / Denominator
Numerator: Total number of votes cast in State (or region)
Denominator:1991 State (or Regional) Census multiplied by (40/88.5)
The Denominator is an estimate of the voting population (could
be replaced by actual voter registration); 40 million is the voting
population, 88.5 million is the total Nigerian population. The
denominator presumes that the voter population is distributed uniformly
throughout the country.
Note that an index close to 100 would indicate almost 100% voting. An
index of over 100 could indicate some election fraud, unless there is
significant on-sight registration.
Election Participation Ranking:
Ranking 1-10: Ondo*, Rivers, Kwara*, Kogi, Osun*, Plateau*, Bauchi, Kaduna*,
Ogun*, Delta* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
11-20: Oyo*, Cross-River*, Lagos*, Enugu*, Akwa-Ibom*, Benue*, Adamawa,
Niger, Edo*, Imo {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
21-31: Anambra*, Yobe*, Katsina, Taraba*, Abia, Borno*, Sokoto,
Kebbi, FCT*, Jigawa*, Kano* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 4}
Win ratio = Votes for winner / votes for opponent
Table 3
Regional Analysis of 1993 Presidential Election Results
Region
Rank by 1991 Census
Rank by Total Votes Cast
Rank by Election Participation
Votes Cast for Abiola
Votes Cast for Tofa
Total Votes Cast
%
Abiola
% Tofa
SouthWest(SW)
1
1
2
3,093,994
549,525
3,643,519
84.92
15.08
East (EA)
4
5
6
739,748
756,142
1,495,890
49.45
50.55
NorthWest(NW)
6
7
7
304,295
738,495
1,042,790
29.18
70.82
NorthEast(NE)
5
4
5
745,591
884,820
1,630,411
45.73
54.27
NorthCentral(NC)
2
3
8
868,951
872,402
1,741,353
49.90
50.10
MiddleBelt (MB)
7
6
4
766,282
509,697
1,275,979
60.05
39.95
Minority (MN)
3
2
3
1,307,447
1,203,340
2,510,787
52.07
47.93
Mid-Central (MC)
8
8
1
530,938
364,264
895,202
59.31
40.69
Total
8,357,246
5,878,685
14,235,931
58.71
41.29
Table 4:Comparative Regional Analysis of Census/Results
Region
1991 Census
Count
Total 1993
Election
Votes
Election
Participation
Index (EPI)
Rank
By
Census
Rank
By
Total
Votes
Rank by
EPI
Winner
Win
Ratio
SouthWest(SW)
17,600,641
3,643,519
45.80
1
1
2
Abiola
5.63
East (EA)
10,712,675
1,495,890
30.89
4
5
6
Tofa
1.02
NorthWest(NW)
8,936,984
1,042,790
25.82
6
7
7
Tofa
2.43
NorthEast(NE)
10,426,532
1,630,411
34.60
5
4
5
Tofa
1.19
NorthCentral(NC)
16,309,565
1,741,353
23.62
2
3
8
Tofa
1.00
MiddleBelt (MB)
7,544,772
1,275,979
37.42
7
6
4
Abiola
1.50
Minority (MN)
12,939,226
2,510,787
42.93
3
2
3
Abiola
1.09
Mid-Central (MC)
4,044,186
895,202
48.97
8
8
1
Abiola
1.46
Total
88,514,581
14,235,931
35.58
Abiola
1.42
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On Fri, Jun 14, 2013 at 11:48 PM, Anunoby, Ogugua <AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu> wrote:
The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded. The Babangida government which ordered the election, cancelled it before the results were all announced. The election commission announced some but not all the results. It did not announce the final election result. Abiola could therefore not have been duly elected president in the said elections. He was not. Was Abiola the more probable winner of the election? Yes. Was he robbed of victory? May be. All credible reports on votes cast before the election was cancelled indicated that Abiola was leading his opponent. Abiola claimed victory. His opponent did not. Did this mean that Abiola won the election and his opponent lost the election? No.
The Babanginda government (BG)and the Abacha government which was a consequence of the BG cancellation of the election, must share responsibility for the so-called pro-democracy movements that challenged the election's cancellation and spurn some of Nigeria's most corrupt opportunist politicians. I say so-called pro-democracy movements because the movements' members who later worked their way into government by hook or crook have mostly taken every opportunity to continually plunder the public purse. For many of these people, Abiola passing would seem to be a greater blessing than they might have hoped for.
oa
-----Original Message-----
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of kenneth harrow
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 11:37 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the darkdeal guys
you don't have to respond if you don't want to, but i am pretty much at sea over what is being charged and countercharged.
again, my knowledge is limited, of course. we all know abiola had been elected, thrown in jail by babangida, died in prison, was succeeded by shonekan whom abacha overthrew.
then the picture of abacha is a descent into a nightmare for nigeria.
that sums up my superficial knowledge.
so, what is this about supporting his mandate and the pro-democracy movement etc? could anyone help clarify this for me?
(wikipedia is no help)
ken
On 6/14/13 8:20 AM, Ikhide wrote:
> Bolaji, you swung unnecessary missiles at me thusly:
>
> "You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in the US with respect to June 12."
>
> You read me too hastily, my dear friend. I could not have over represented myself. Read me again; I was not referring to Abiola's mandate, I was referring to Abacha's mandate. I had nothing to do with the prodemocracy struggle. As Ayo correctly noted, I had nothing to so with Abiola's mandate. How would you know that I did not spend my relative youth and family resources supporting Abacha?
>
> Abegi. Leave matter. Be well.
>
> - Ikhide
>
> On Jun 14, 2013, at 7:41 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 2. You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative
>> youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the
>> actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did
>> not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in
>> the US with respect to June 12. I regard it as a phase in my life,
>> but I am
--
kenneth w. harrow
faculty excellence advocate
distinguished professor of english
michigan state university
department of english
619 red cedar road
room C-614 wells hall
east lansing, mi 48824
ph. 517 803 8839
harrow@msu.edu
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