RE: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

Anunoby,

You wrote:

"That the June 12, 1993 election was not concluded is fact, historical fact I might add."

May I ask you: how do you define "fact, historical fact..."? What fact, Whose fact are we talking about here?

Thank you

Tokunbo

From: AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2013 01:09:48 -0500
Subject: RE: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

Bolaji Aluko,

You continue to amaze your readers by your high propensity for belligerent rudeness however uncalled for it is for you to be. Have you not learned that you do not tell the truth because you say the other person has lied? Do you know that it is a lie to say that one has lied when the one has not? One has not lied because you, Bolaji say so. That the June 12, 1993 election was not concluded is fact, historical fact I might add. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu "STARTED to announce what was already known (you neither state who already knew nor identify their source(s)) - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot." Are you aware and concerned at all about the vainness and risks of taking a firm position based on what even Bolaji acknowledges is "known UN-OFFICIALLY" ? Frustration with a state of affairs does not make facts non-facts, or non-facts facts. You acknowledge that Dr. Nwosu did not concluded his announcement of the result of the election before the Military government cancelled the election which it had the authority and power to do. Nigeria's presidential elections are matters of law to be conducted and concluded in line with the law. An election is not concluded because Bolaji peddles some numbers. says that it was. Under the extant laws in force in Nigeria on June 1993, the election in issue was not concluded. An election is concluded after the lawful election authority, in compliance with the extant laws, formally confirms that it is by a formal and official announcement of the final election result, and declares a winner. Neither one of the above happened with respect to the June 12, 1993. There was no legally declared winner of that election.

I might add that you, Bolaji are quickly mastering the folly of calling anyone you disagree with, a liar. Do I see an postulant bully here? There is such a thing as respect for people and facts even when one disagrees with them. I am continually reminded that maturity does not always correlate with age, academic learning, or status. I have moved on.

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Mobolaji Aluko
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 7:31 PM
To: USAAfrica Dialogue
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

Ogugua Anunoby:

The political casuistry that you outlined below - a euphemism for dishonesty - was rampant among a clique of people during the June 12 period who did not wish to give other reasons why they did not support the June 12 movement.

It is a lie that the election was not concluded. The date was announced, the period of voting was announced, the counting was done. All - I mean ALL - came and went. The results were COLLATED at each polling unit. Nwosu STARTED to announce what was already known - and then the OFFICIAL announcement by the ONLY body empowered to make the announcement of what was already known UN-OFFICIALLY was stopped by military boot.

And that is what you mean that "The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded?"

Anybody maintaining such a casuistry 20 years after - unless of course he was born AFTER June 12, 1993, in which case you should have written that "you were told that the June 12 Presidential Election was not concluded" - should be ashamed of himself.

Finally, I dump once again my analysis of the June 12 results below.....I did not formulate the numbers in my head.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

http://www.nigerianmuse.com/essays/?u=AlukorevisitingJune12.htm

Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results

October 1994

Table 1

The Annulled June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Elections:
Unofficial Results

State	Rank by 1991 Census	Rank by Total 1993 Total Votes	Votes Abiola	Votes Tofa	Total Votes Cast	Abiola %	Tofa %	Region
Lagos	1	2	883,965	149,432	1,033,397	85.54	14.46	SW
Kano	2	22	169,519	154,809	324,328	52.27	47.73	NC
Sokoto	3	12	97,726	372,250	469,976	20.79	79.21	NW
Bauchi	4	4	339,339	524,836	864,175	39.27	60.73	NE
Rivers	5	3	370,678	640,973	1,011,651	36.64	63.36	MN
Kaduna	6	5	389,713	356,880	746,593	52.20	47.80	NC
Ondo	7	1	883,024	162,994	1,046,018	84.42	15.58	SW
Katsina	8	13	171,162	271,077	442,239	38.70	61.30	NC
Oyo	9	7	536,014	105,785	641,799	83.52	16.48	SW
Plateau	10	6	417,565	259,394	676,959	61.68	38.32	MB
Enugu	11	8	263,101	254,050	517,151	50.88	49.12	EA
Jigawa	12	27	138,557	89,636	228,193	60.72	39.28	NC
Benue	13	15	246,830	186,302	433,132	56.99	43.01	MB
Anambra	14	18	212,024	155,029	367,053	57.76	42.24	EA
Borno	15	25	153,490	128,684	282,174	54.40	45.60	NE
Delta	16	11	327,277	146,001	473,278	69.15	30.85	MN
Imo	17	20	159,350	195,836	355,186	44.86	55.14	EA
Niger	18	19	136,350	221,437	357,787	38.11	61.89	NW
AkwaIbom	19	16	214,782	159,342	374,124	57.41	42.59	MN
Ogun	20	14	365,266	72,068	437,334	83.52	16.48	SW
Abia	21	26	105,273	151,227	256,500	41.04	58.96	EA
Osun	22	10	425,725	59,246	484,971	87.78	12.22	SW
Edo	23	23	205,407	103,572	308,979	66.48	33.52	MN
Adamawa	24	24	140,875	167,239	308,114	45.72	54.28	NE
Kogi	25	9	222,700	265,732	488,432	45.59	54.41	MC
Kebbi	26	28	70,219	144,808	215,027	32.66	67.34	NW
CrsRiver27	21	189,303	153,452	342,755	55.23	44.77	MN
Kwara	28	17	288,270	80,219	368,489	78.23	21.77	MC
Taraba	29	30	101,887	64,001	165,888	61.42	38.58	MB
Yobe	30	29	111,887	64,061	175,948	63.59	36.41	NE
FCT	31	31	19,968	18,313	38,281	52.16	47.84	MC
Total			8,357,246	5,878,685	14,235,931	58.71	41.29

Note the regions:

South-West (SW): Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Oshun {Abiola wins all 5 states}
East (EA): Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia {Abiola wins the first 2 states}
North-West (NW): Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi {Tofa wins all 3 states}
North-East (NE): Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Yobe {Abiola wins first 2 states}
North-Central(NC): Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina {Abiola wins first 3 states}
Middle-Belt (MB): Plateau, Benue, Taraba {Abiola wins all 3 states}
Minority (MN): Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Cross-River, Rivers {Abiola wins
first 4 states}
Mid-Central (MC): Kwara, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kogi {Abiola
wins first 2 states}

The "traditional" Northern Region comprised the NW, NE, NC, MB and MC regions,
the Western Region was the SW region, the Eastern Region comprised EA region,
Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers and Rivers States, and the Mid-West Region
comprised Edo and Delta states.

Table 2:

State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections

State	Rank by 1991 Census	Rank by Total Votes	1991 Census Population Figure	Total Votes Cast	Election Participation Index (EPI)	Rank by EPI	Winner	Win Ratio
Lagos	1	2	5,685,781	1,033,397	40.21	13	Abiola	5.92
Kano	2	22	5,362,040	324,328	12.74	31	Abiola	1.10
Sokoto	3	12	4,392,391	469,976	23.67	27	Tofa	3.81
Bauchi	4	4	4,294,413	864,175	44.52	7	Tofa	1.55
Rivers	5	3	3,983,857	1,011,651	56.18	2	Tofa	1.73
Kaduna	6	5	3,969,252	746,593	41.62	8	Abiola	1.09
Ondo	7	1	3,884,485	1,046,018	59.58	1	Abiola	5.42
Katsina	8	13	3,878,344	442,239	25.23	23	Tofa	1.58
Oyo	9	7	3,488,789	641,799	40.70	11	Abiola	5.07
Plateau	10	6	3,283,784	676,959	45.61	6	Abiola	1.61
Enugu	11	8	3,161,295	517,151	36.19	14	Abiola	1.04
Jigawa	12	27	2,829,929	228,193	17.84	30	Abiola	1.55
Benue	13	15	2,780,398	433,132	34.47	16	Abiola	1.33
Anambra	14	18	2,767,903	367,053	29.34	21	Abiola	1.37
Borno	15	25	2,596,589	282,174	24.04	26	Abiola	1.92
Delta	16	11	2,570,181	473,278	40.74	10	Abiola	2.24
Imo	17	20	2,485,499	355,186	31.62	20	Tofa	1.23
Niger	18	19	2,482,367	357,787	31.89	18	Tofa	1.62
AkwaIbom	19	16	2,359,736	374,124	35.08	15	Abiola	1.35
Ogun	20	14	2,338,570	437,334	41.38	9	Abiola	5.07
Abia	21	26	2,297,978	256,500	24.70	25	Tofa	1.44
Osun	22	10	2,203,016	484,971	48.71	5	Abiola	7.18
Edo	23	23	2,159,848	308,979	31.65	19	Abiola	1.98
Adamawa	24	24	2,124,049	308,114	32.09	17	Tofa	1.19
Kogi	25	9	2,099,046	488,432	51.48	4	Tofa	1.19
Kebbi	26	28	2,062,226	215,027	23.07	28	Tofa	2.06
CrsRiver	27	21	1,865,604	342,755	40.65	12	Abiola	1.23
Kwara	28	17	1,566,469	368,489	52.05	3	Abiola	3.59
Taraba	29	30	1,480,590	165,888	24.79	24	Abiola	1.59
Yobe	30	29	1,411,481	175,948	27.58	22	Abiola	1.75
FCT	31	31	378,671	38,281	22.37	29	Abiola	1.09
Total			88,515,581	14,235,931	35.58		Abiola	1.42

Notes on Table 2:

Election Participation Index = 100 * Numerator / Denominator

Numerator: Total number of votes cast in State (or region)
Denominator:1991 State (or Regional) Census multiplied by (40/88.5)

The Denominator is an estimate of the voting population (could
be replaced by actual voter registration); 40 million is the voting
population, 88.5 million is the total Nigerian population. The
denominator presumes that the voter population is distributed uniformly
throughout the country.
Note that an index close to 100 would indicate almost 100% voting. An
index of over 100 could indicate some election fraud, unless there is
significant on-sight registration.

Election Participation Ranking:
Ranking 1-10: Ondo*, Rivers, Kwara*, Kogi, Osun*, Plateau*, Bauchi, Kaduna*,
Ogun*, Delta* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
11-20: Oyo*, Cross-River*, Lagos*, Enugu*, Akwa-Ibom*, Benue*, Adamawa,
Niger, Edo*, Imo {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
21-31: Anambra*, Yobe*, Katsina, Taraba*, Abia, Borno*, Sokoto,
Kebbi, FCT*, Jigawa*, Kano* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 4}

Win ratio = Votes for winner / votes for opponent

Table 3
Regional Analysis of 1993 Presidential Election Results

Region	Rank by 1991 Census	Rank by Total Votes Cast	Rank by Election Participation	Votes Cast for Abiola	Votes Cast for Tofa	Total Votes Cast	% Abiola	% Tofa
SouthWest(SW)	1	1	2	3,093,994	549,525	3,643,519	84.92	15.08
East (EA)	4	5	6	739,748	756,142	1,495,890	49.45	50.55
NorthWest(NW)	6	7	7	304,295	738,495	1,042,790	29.18	70.82
NorthEast(NE)	5	4	5	745,591	884,820	1,630,411	45.73	54.27
NorthCentral(NC)	2	3	8	868,951	872,402	1,741,353	49.90	50.10
MiddleBelt (MB)	7	6	4	766,282	509,697	1,275,979	60.05	39.95
Minority (MN)	3	2	3	1,307,447	1,203,340	2,510,787	52.07	47.93
Mid-Central (MC)	8	8	1	530,938	364,264	895,202	59.31	40.69
Total				8,357,246	5,878,685	14,235,931	58.71	41.29

Table 4:

Comparative Regional Analysis of Census/Results

Region	1991 Census Count	Total 1993 Election Votes	Election Participation Index (EPI)	Rank By Census	Rank By Total Votes	Rank by EPI	Winner	Win Ratio
SouthWest(SW)	17,600,641	3,643,519	45.80	1	1	2	Abiola	5.63
East (EA)	10,712,675	1,495,890	30.89	4	5	6	Tofa	1.02
NorthWest(NW)	8,936,984	1,042,790	25.82	6	7	7	Tofa	2.43
NorthEast(NE)	10,426,532	1,630,411	34.60	5	4	5	Tofa	1.19
NorthCentral(NC)	16,309,565	1,741,353	23.62	2	3	8	Tofa	1.00
MiddleBelt (MB)	7,544,772	1,275,979	37.42	7	6	4	Abiola	1.50
Minority (MN)	12,939,226	2,510,787	42.93	3	2	3	Abiola	1.09
Mid-Central (MC)	4,044,186	895,202	48.97	8	8	1	Abiola	1.46
Total	88,514,581	14,235,931	35.58				Abiola	1.42

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On Fri, Jun 14, 2013 at 11:48 PM, Anunoby, Ogugua <AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu> wrote:

The June 12 Presidential election was not concluded. The Babangida government which ordered the election, cancelled it before the results were all announced. The election commission announced some but not all the results. It did not announce the final election result. Abiola could therefore not have been duly elected president in the said elections. He was not. Was Abiola the more probable winner of the election? Yes. Was he robbed of victory? May be. All credible reports on votes cast before the election was cancelled indicated that Abiola was leading his opponent. Abiola claimed victory. His opponent did not. Did this mean that Abiola won the election and his opponent lost the election? No.
The Babanginda government (BG)and the Abacha government which was a consequence of the BG cancellation of the election, must share responsibility for the so-called pro-democracy movements that challenged the election's cancellation and spurn some of Nigeria's most corrupt opportunist politicians. I say so-called pro-democracy movements because the movements' members who later worked their way into government by hook or crook have mostly taken every opportunity to continually plunder the public purse. For many of these people, Abiola passing would seem to be a greater blessing than they might have hoped for.

oa

-----Original Message-----
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of kenneth harrow
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2013 11:37 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Ahmed Tinubu: June 12 is our beacon in the dark

deal guys
you don't have to respond if you don't want to, but i am pretty much at sea over what is being charged and countercharged.
again, my knowledge is limited, of course. we all know abiola had been elected, thrown in jail by babangida, died in prison, was succeeded by shonekan whom abacha overthrew.
then the picture of abacha is a descent into a nightmare for nigeria.
that sums up my superficial knowledge.
so, what is this about supporting his mandate and the pro-democracy movement etc? could anyone help clarify this for me?
(wikipedia is no help)
ken

On 6/14/13 8:20 AM, Ikhide wrote:
> Bolaji, you swung unnecessary missiles at me thusly:
>
> "You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in the US with respect to June 12."
>
> You read me too hastily, my dear friend. I could not have over represented myself. Read me again; I was not referring to Abiola's mandate, I was referring to Abacha's mandate. I had nothing to do with the prodemocracy struggle. As Ayo correctly noted, I had nothing to so with Abiola's mandate. How would you know that I did not spend my relative youth and family resources supporting Abacha?
>
> Abegi. Leave matter. Be well.
>
> - Ikhide
>
> On Jun 14, 2013, at 7:41 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 2. You and I know that you did not spend "all of (your) relative
>> youth and my family's resources in the 90's to ensure the
>> actualization of Abacha's mandate." Absolutely untrue....even I did
>> not - and I spent much of my waking hours doing my little bit here in
>> the US with respect to June 12. I regard it as a phase in my life,
>> but I am

--
kenneth w. harrow
faculty excellence advocate
distinguished professor of english
michigan state university
department of english
619 red cedar road
room C-614 wells hall
east lansing, mi 48824
ph. 517 803 8839
harrow@msu.edu

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