USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: OUR DEMOCRACY AND THE MISSING DIVIDENDS

OUR DEMOCRACY AND THE MISSING DIVIDENDS

Ayo Olukotun

     The expression 'dividends of democracy' although worn out and clichéd from overuse, has emerged in our political linguistics as a short hand for capturing the performance or non-performance of governments.

     On Wednesday, Democracy Day will be celebrated in an orgy of self-advertisement by our leaders who will be telling us how hard they have tried to share out the dividends of democracy, and of course, how much they are entitled to an extension of tenure. 

    In the absence of an established opinion polls culture to guide us in determining the performance and popularity of government we can gain insight into how well or poorly Jonathan has performed by matching his campaign promises with his performance so far. Additional information about what Jonathan promised to do at the outset can be gleaned from his inaugural address on May 29^th, 2011 at a ceremony attended by 50 Heads of state. 

    Sonala Olumhense, former editor of the Guardian kept a diary of Jonathan's campaign promises and listed in a write-up close to 100 spanning the areas of job creation, infrastructural development, stable power supply, agricultural revolution, educational revitalisation and a determined war on corruption.  So far flung and comprehensive is Jonathan's manifesto to radically change the face of Nigeria that a cynic would have laughed them out of court as over arching and posturing campaign rhetoric. But Jonathan insisted that he meant every word.  Said he on May 29: "Our decade of development has begun.  The march is on.  The day of transformation begins today.  The leadership we have pledged is decidedly transformative.  The transformation will be achieved in all the critical sectors." A quick perusal of the balance sheet shows that with a growth rate of between 6 to 8% annually, Nigeria is today, one of the world's fastest growing economies.  Its resilient economy is in fact billed to overtake South Africa's a few years down the road.  And still on the good news, there has been a slight diversification of the revenue base away from oil; and an expression of interest in long term investment by American giant, General Electric.

   One may even add for measure, and as a sign of prosperity, the increasing number of private jets owned by our billionaires and office holders.  If you reel out the growth statistics about which official spokesmen have made much, in a political economy class however, a clearheaded undergraduate may inquire, about how much of the growth is an outworking of economic management and how much of it is an expression of natural and material endowments; and the entrepreneurial vision of businessmen and women who struggle against the odds.

    As a clue, international economic analysts projected as far back as the mid 1990's that Nigeria has all the potentials of becoming an economic tiger on the scale of the emergent Asian powers, if it could get its acts together.  Leaving that point aside, economic growth that is powered mainly by natural resources and the service sector does not give much cause for applause.  As Banji Oyeyinka, Professor of innovation and development pointed out in a recent essay, the fact that Abuja features in these statistics as the fastest growing part of Nigeria reveals the non productive nature of Nigeria's growth. Oyeyinka then asks acidly: "What productive activity takes place in Abuja beyond the sharing of money?" 

     If you add to this picture, our gradual descent to renewed debt slavery then the superficial nature of what is going on becomes clearer.  Jonathan promised a transformation that will impact on the lives of Nigerians; not an enclave, non-inclusive growth that will deepen the chasm between the emergent owners of private jets and luxury locomotives and those condemned to using the ramshackle public transportation.

   Regarding power supply, Jonathan had promised to deliver stable power supply by 2015; ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than twice a week and raise power generation to close to 5,000 megawatts by December 2011.  No matter what government propaganda claims, the woes of consumers, as revealed in distress calls published in our newspapers provide a convincing gauge that little or no progress has been recorded on this score. The roadmap to stable power supply is on slow wheels while the incremental positioning that should convince us that we are on the highway to power upgrade is despairingly absent.

   Has agriculture been modernised as Jonathan promised? Well, the recent lament of the Central Bank governor concerning mounting import bills of rice and starch provide a useful hint.  Cassava bread, in spite of the President's solemn assurances is yet to arrive on our breakfast table and the prospects of that happening soon do not look good either.

    Law and order and the pledge to combat rising insecurity featured expectedly, on Jonathan's agenda.  The recently declared state of emergency in some northern states for once showed Jonathan who appeared all along to sidestep a snowballing insurgency, taking decisive action. Could he have acted much earlier, thereby preventing the escalation of the challenge into an existential threat? Questions can also be raised as to the calmness of Jonathan in the face of provocative utterances by Dokubo Asari and Kingsley Kuku that war will break out if Jonathan loses the 2015 presidential election; statements which in effect annul the right of Nigerians to decide who will lead them. 

     It is also not clear whether Jonathan and other political leaders grasp the connection between a corrupt neoliberal growth model and rising insecurity.  Read the history books; the Asian Tigers astounded the world, not just by fast paced growth but by growth which featured impressive degrees of social equality.  It is extraordinary and ominous that aside from homilies on job creation, Jonathan and the political class as a whole do not see the law and order implications of widening inequalities and the explosive consequences of not carrying 80% of the population along in our journey to modernisation.

      The promise to "run an inclusive government without discrimination"? Ask the Yoruba Unity Forum which has been shouting from the rooftops about the marginalisation of Yorubas under the Jonathan administration, with buttressing statistics on the pattern of appointments to prove their point.

   Not many believe that Jonathan has exerted himself enough on his campaign pledge to in his words, "fight corruption regardless of the position of the person involved."  His critics say that he is too much a part of the system to do any such thing, pointing at a recent senate alarm that monies kept in special accounts were prodigally expended by presidents Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Jonathan.

    On the hopeful side, Jonathan has kept a few of his campaign promises such as the  one to establish a federal university in every state, although as Prof. Niyi Akinaso argued in his Punch column of 21^st May, it would have been better to build at least a few qualitative universities rather than spreading resources thin in the name of geo-ethnic balancing.   

     There is also the point that Jonathan still has two years to redeem his agenda of transforming Nigeria. On present terms, however, the prospects of his achieving up to one-third of his promises are not very bright.

Prof Olukotun is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Entrepreneurial Studies at Lead City University, Ibadan. ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com 07055841236